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Monthly Archives: November 2014

Two Skeptics Debate the Role of CFA Institute

10th November, 2014 · Tom Brakke, CFA · 2 Comments
Tom Brakke, CFA

In a recent column in Chief Investment Officer (“A Skeptic’s View of Today’s Religion”), Angelo Calvello calls out CFA Institute as “the Church of the Capital Asset Pricing Model,” accusing it of perpetuating groupthink about how markets work and not having “a demonstrable positive impact on the way we invest.”

As a CFA charterholder (one old enough to have a mere four digits in his charter number), you might expect that I would bristle at the characterization. While I think the charges are too sweeping and too focused on CFA Institute alone, I agree with most of what Calvello says about the asset management industry of today.

In fact, I’ve written in a similar vein over the years. I absolutely believe that there is a “paucity of genuine innovation.” When I ask investment professionals to rate their own industry and companies (after all, they are in the business of rating other ones), invariably they assign low marks.

Like Calvello, I “have criticized asset management’s business models, culture, and compensation structures; the academy’s lack of imaginative scholarship; and asset owners’ and managers’ behavioral biases” as key factors in the promise of the investment profession not being fulfilled.

And, as for the teaching of investment notions of the day as doctrine, I gave this advice in one of my Letters to a Young Analyst (in regard to the desirability of different credentials): “If you choose to pursue an MBA or a CFA, remember that they are built upon orthodoxy, by and large, which you need to learn and attack at the same time.”

Later in that book, I added, “We need to remind ourselves that modern finance is a very young discipline. Despite that, it is common to see historical asset class returns presented in a way that presumes them to be sound estimates of the future; asset allocation and risk management techniques being made to look scientific; and securities being described, classified, and recommended using relatively few years of evidence as if they were definitive.”

There is so much that we don’t know – and, despite that, the teaching of finance in universities and by CFA Institute and other credentialing organizations is entirely too focused on answers rather than questions. It may not be surprising, then, that the same tack is usually taken when investment professionals talk to asset owners. Narrow perspectives are honed and reinforced; unfortunately, good questions tend to get in the way of pat answers.

One of the best things about the CFA exam process is the need for candidates to study a broad body of investment knowledge in order to pass the tests. However, as with other disciplines, it is easy for a test-taker to perceive that body of knowledge as fixed and foundational, even when it’s not fixed and may only be foundational for a limited period of time.

Soon enough, however, the diversity of the CFA curriculum fades away for most charterholders, at least those that find their way into asset management. Specialists rule, and the mission for most is playing the game of relative performance.

Has it worked for asset owners? Hardly.

Is CFA Institute responsible for the current state of affairs? No, although it’s complicit. In that, it has plenty of company, although it also has a lot more leverage to change the status quo than most of us.

I’m not sure how I would alter the exam process if it was mine to do, other than by stressing the transient nature of the current body of knowledge and the persistent failure of the investment industry to translate the reigning theory into successful practice. I want candidates to learn most everything that they are currently being asked to learn, just not to think of it as scripture.

And it would be nice for there to be a greater focus on the softer skills that matter just as much, from communicating effectively (yes, that means listening as well as speaking/writing), to understanding the broader context of investment decision making, to designing and managing organizations that can meet the real needs of clients. But, should the CFA curriculum be modified in some way to do that? I’m not so sure.

No doubt, we need different kinds of people in the industry, whether they are mathematicians and artists (as Ashby Monk wants to see in a new generation of asset owners) or polymaths (the subject of a previous Calvello column). Training more and more people in the same way isn’t an answer to the current shortcomings. Variant perspectives are required.

Which gets us back to CFA Institute and the tens of thousands of us that have earned our CFA charters.

The organization has always stressed the need for ethical behavior by charterholders, but, despite that emphasis and its Future of Finance initiative, it hasn’t been the force for change in industry behaviors that it should be. As I wrote in a previous posting on this site, CFA Institute “needs to engage and mobilize the large asset owners and asset managers that wield the economic power in the markets.” And change how business is done. That it apparently hasn’t done so to any degree is a greater problem right now than any tendency to cling to a particular theoretical doctrine.

In fact, charterholders are all over the map on many of the concepts that Calvello bemoans. And CFA Institute provides forums in which they are vigorously debated. While I might be an agitator and as skeptical by nature as Calvello, I’m not banned as a heretic. To the contrary, CFA Institute has invited me to share my views in various ways and I’ve had the opportunity to speak to many local CFA societies.

So, while I agree with much of what Calvello has to say, the first priority for CFA Institute should not be to rip up the current body of candidate knowledge. Instead, it should be more aggressive in trying to improve the industry. As with a portfolio manager who becomes a closet indexer to avoid career risk, professional organizations can get too focused on protecting the position they are in rather than advancing the cause.

For CFA Institute, it is time to intensify the battle. It can’t be a bystander and it can’t be thought of as merely a credentialing agency. If that’s all it does, it is providing troops for the industry, not for the profession. That’s the last thing we need.

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Local Charterholders | Tags: Calvello, CFA Exam, CFA Institute |

One of These Things Is a Lot Like the Others

3rd November, 2014 · John Boylan, CFA · Leave a comment
John Boylan, CFA

Oddly enough, I remember the first ever Sesame Street way back in 1969. My kindergarten teacher sent a note with us home telling us about a wonderful new PBS educational TV show specifically for us rug rats. Back in those days Oscar the Grouch was orange and they used to play a game on that show called “One of These Things Is Not Like the Others.”

This taught me a lot about relationships. Some things are indeed like the others, while others are not. Frequently us on Wall Street forget that and classify things where things are surely not where they should be.

One thing that drives me nuts about this industry is the monolithic thinking it often gets itself into. Staples analyst are staples analysts. Health Care analysts would never understand tech and so on. In reality sector boundaries are completely artificial and ignore business realities on how managers run their organizations.

In my opinion analysts don’t follow companies, or even sectors. What we really strive to do as analysts is discern superior business models and business structures (i.e. how are they set up financially to support the business model) and invest in those that offer intrinsic value compared to their current stock price. Sector membership in reality is immaterial to how investors should view a company.

Therefore I find more investment cycle commonality among companies with similar business models than ones that are reside in similar business sectors—much like managers view their own businesses. Certain models are influenced more by consumer sentiment ebbs and flows, others by recurring revenues, and still others by fluctuations in the business investment cycle—things that transcend belonging in a particular sector. Investors can take advantage of those commonalities as each business model has similar investment cycles. There are many more types of models but many companies fall in to one of those three buckets—let’s use the Information Technology sector as one such example.

For instance most semiconductor companies have heavy cyclical components based on a predictable business investment cycle, not unlike most late-stage industrials—the semi cycle is just faster and tougher to time. You usually want to purchase those companies the same way you would with a stock like CAT; when absolutely no one believes anyone will ever buy one of their products for a long time. Software companies are essentially recurring revenue companies and can often be valued on those razor-razor blade revenue streams, e.g. not unlike some medical product companies. However, with the advent of cloud delivery of software, we can see a day when software companies become more cyclically driven like their semi brethren. Finally, some tech companies are primarily driven by consumer sentiment, usually driven by a product introduction cycle, as they are essentially consumer discretionary items—media content delivery and consumption devices. Herein lies Apple.

For example, I sometimes think one of Apple’s best comp companies in terms of the way it is structured, and the mind-set of the company as a whole is Nike. Both are highly innovative companies that have rabid followings in an oligopoly market structure. Distribution channels are crucial for both companies and their products are vitally important for their retailers to carry, but both Nike and Apple also utilize their own storefronts to satisfy the information needs of their “power users” and for promotional purposes. Both offer products that are performance driven, yet can be used as fashion accessories. Both companies have significant opportunities in emerging markets as newly formed middle classes strive for high quality western goods and brands. Finally, this is why new product releases are so crucial to both Nike and Apple—both companies need product refreshes or new product categories to satisfy changing trends with consumers and counter other product releases from competitors.

Would it not make more sense to organize a research division based upon business models? To an outside entrepreneur, I think it would. It certainly would force us to focus on those items that truly drive the business as opposed to simply the S&P sector it resides.

So perhaps one of these things is not like the others, at least the way Wall Street defines it.

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Posted in Freezing Assets Shout Out, Hot Topic Commentary, Local Charterholders | Tags: analyst, analytics, freezing assets shout out, investment cycle, monolithic thinking |
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