Tag Archives: CFAMN

Event Recap: AI and Machine Learning in Investment Management

· · Leave a comment

Rick Roche, CAIA, of Little Harbor Advisors, entertained a full house as he presented an overview of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in the Investment Management Industry. The audience was diverse, ranging from industry veterans to a Senior in High School (I must admit that I wasn’t as forward-thinking at his age). For Mr. Roche this was a homecoming of sorts, having lived in Linden Hills for 22 years before moving to Boston last year.

Though Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is complex and often begs to be gone through with fine detail Rick presented a view that was “a couple feet deep and a mile wide” – for the 43rd time in the last 13 months we were told. The hour ranged from 1) a history lesson of Machine Learning to 2) the fascinating amount of data and capabilities currently available and 3) some thought provoking views of the disruption that may (will?) be caused by the uprising of the machines and those who run them.

Mr. Roche parroted Gary Kasparov in his book “Deep Thinking”, where he reflected upon losing to IBM’s “Deep Blue”, blaming it on “Losing emotional control … and never getting it back” — for those in the investment industry this emotional control may strike close to home. That the Wealth Management industry is a laggard when it comes to the adoption of the advanced techniques (as reported by PricewaterhouseCoopers) is odd as it has two of the key ingredients necessary to foster the revolution, high margins and emotional participants. A quick poll of the audience seemed to support this idea that the industry lags behind as only about a quarter of those present had some exposure to machine learning with most of these having only done some light reading on the topic.

As a CFA charterholder, and someone who is not looking to be displaced by a robot in 10 years, some of the more riveting aspects of the presentation focused on the world around me, including:

  • Algorithms developed through Machine Learning techniques account for more than 98% of the trades happening on Wall Street and have sped up to the rate where 40,000 trades can now execute in the time it takes to blink our eyes.
  • By 2025, 163 Zettabytes of digital data will be available (roughly equivalent to the storage capacity of 635 billion of the top of the line iPhones) — to put this in comparison it is estimated that the totality of human speech in all of history would cover 42 Zettabytes (if digitized as 16 kHz 16-bit audio).
  • Algorithms have been developed to understand how much fuel is being transported based on reviewing satellite images to see how low tankers sit in the water.
  • The keywords of “Data Scientist” are bigger than “Quant Analyst” and “Fundamental Analyst” on Indeed by a factor of three, and growing
  • More than half of the people surveyed would consider becoming a client of Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon if they were to offer wealth management services — and this number increases if you were to ask Millennials and those with over $20MM net worth.
  • Alibaba has the World’s Largest money market fund

In the words of the legendary investor, Paul Tudor Jones, “No man is better than a machine. And no machine is better than a human with a machine”. In the words of another legendary investor, BlackRock co-founder Robert Kapito, “Apple was not in music industry, Google was not in mobile phones, and Amazon was not in groceries — until they were”. Mr. Roche’s presentation highlighted the risks for those who are not willing or able to transform and inspired those who are willing and able to become, what he called, a Computerized Financial Analyst.

That we came together on Halloween and enjoyed a Thanksgiving feast may be a bit of a foreshadowing that blending two seemingly foreign concepts, humans and computers, can work if you sent apart your preconceptions and embrace it.

For those who were unable to come to the event, and for those who would like to see it a second time, please watch the video through the link below. For those who are interested in the topics of programming, machine learning, artificial intelligence, etc. please send an e-mail to the Society (events@cfamn.org).

View the session video here:
https://penxy.com/widget/?e=xelol

-Tom Crandall, CFA

Articles Referenced:

Asset Management Firms are Laggards in ML Adoption

Asset & Wealth Management Revolution: Embracing Exponential Change

Day in the Life of a Director of Research Event Recap

· · Leave a comment

By Steven Rohrich, CFA, Associate Director, Performance Analytics, Pavilion Advisory Group Inc.

On November 16, a group of students and their professor, along with other business professionals had a chance to learn from  Josh Howard, CFA and Scott Opsal, CFA. Over the course of lunch, our speakers shared with us their backgrounds as Directors of Research, daily tasks, and important tips to become investment professionals.

Background

Josh Howard, CFA, Director of Investment Risk and Performance at RBC Global Asset Management, and past President of the CFA Society of MN, taught high school math before breaking into the investment field. Josh was always interested in AP Statistics and began his career as a quantitative analyst building models for risk and returns. Scott Opsal, CFA, Director of Research at The Leuthold Group, LLC, began his career working on the management side of funds typically held in pensions and 401(K)s. He also taught Security Analysis at UW Whitewater. Both are now working closely with quantitative funds. Scott focuses on tactical allocation, and Josh’s concentration is on factor investing and managing risk. Like their roles, the firms they work for are quite different as well. The Leuthold Group, LLC is an RIA with 25 employees, over 1 billion AUM focusing on sell side, and buy side mutual funds and SMAs. RBC GAM, headquartered in Toronto with the operations based in Minneapolis, employs 180+ in the US and has about CAD $370 billion AUM. When asked the question about finding a firm that is a good fit, Scott provided the insight of “find a firm that shares similar values and philosophy you have as it will be the best fit.”

Director of Research Tasks

There are many responsibilities that a Director of Research has, but our speakers were able to provide some of their main tasks and favorite aspects of each day.

  • Investment Process
    • Including, but not limited to, managing investment tools and resources, generating and screening for new investment ideas, and assisting with portfolio construction and allocation.
    • Facilitating information between analysts and Portfolio Managers and running attribution to determine where returns in the portfolio are coming from.
  • Team Management
    • Managing the relationship between Portfolio Managers and analysts.
    • Hiring the people that fit with the team and firms philosophy and training new staff.
    • Performing Human Resource functions.

As a Director of Research, there are numerous opportunities to improve processes, develop the next generation of professionals, and have an impact on investment performance and client results. However, this career also has its challenges and pressures for returns, time management, and determining what is a fad and what is a true innovation.

Things to Consider

Our speakers provided some guidance not only on how to become a Director of Research but to start a career in investments. A good candidate will have:

  • High ethical standards, intellectual curiosity, expertise in investment process and theory, and strong writing and communication skills.
  • Ability to teach oneself to use the tools used in the investment process.
  • Desire to read investment books.
  • Passion to find a firm that shares their same philosophy.

Societies 2.0: CFA Institute Delivers More Than Just Exam Results

· · Leave a comment

By: Tom Crandall, CFA, CAIA and Kate Lyons, CFA – CFA Society Minnesota Board Members

Intrigued? You should be!

Recently, the CFA Institute hosted delegates from societies around the globe to share details on the progress around their latest initiative, Societies 2.0.  Representing the CFA MN Society, Board Members Tom Crandall and Kate Lyons joined Executive Director Mark Salter in Vancouver to learn more about this initiative and how it will add value to our members.

As the name implies, Societies 2.0 is the Institute focusing on societies in a different way than the it has before.  Recognizing societies are experts in their own market and understand their members best, the Institute is looking to support the societies in all their different and unique initiatives by promoting the highest standards in ethics, education, and professional excellence.  In turn, this partnership will transform the society/institute relationship into a professional body rather than a group of test-passers.

We’ve outlined the three objectives that the Institute will focus on –

  • To develop future professionals through relevant and accessible credentialing programs, high

standards of entry and professionalism

  • To deliver member value that accelerates the professional success of our members and that

continues to develop educated, ethical members at the top of their profession

  • To build market integrity that benefits investors and our members that serve them

So what does this mean for you?

The CFA Institute has committed both financial and human capital resources in order to support the initiative.  A key element to the success of this initiative is to reduce the volunteer burden and increase operational consistencies at the society level. Beginning this year, the societies will begin to receive increased funding that can be used to reinvest in the society infrastructure.  Externally, the Institute is proactively advocating by engaging policy makers and regulators through leadership projects aimed at influencing perspectives. Actively engaging on industry shaping discussion such as Uniform Fiduciary Duty and capital markets issues such as fintech regulation, the Institute is finding a seat at the table and better able to represent societies and Charterholders as a whole.

The CFA Society of Minnesota is a society that is well known for our programs, innovation, and engaged members.  Sure, we already knew that but our strong midwestern sensibilities keep us from really acknowledging this fact, out loud (being transplants, we feel no uneasiness in highlighting!).  We believe that the society is in an excellent position to benefit from this new initiative and provide new value and better experiences for our members.

We are excited to explore what these new relationships mean to our local society and how we can leverage these additional resources from the Institute.  Should the Compensation Survey be a national effort?  How can we better engage with our Federal Reserve Bank?  What type of professional education/career development do our members want? Is there a way we can give back to our community? These are just some of the questions that can be considered and we are looking for your voice in the discussion.  Keep an eye out in coming weeks for additional information and a special request for your thoughts and interests!

Day in the Life of An Equity Analyst Event Recap

· · Leave a comment

By John C. Bird, Operations Analyst at Nuveen Asset Management and CFA Level II Candidate

Day in the Life: Equity Analyst, featuring Andrew Rem, CFA and Paul Dwyer, CFA

Day in the Life featuring Andrew Rem, CFA and Paul Dwyer, CFA

Interested in pursuing one of the investment world’s most exciting careers? On September 21st, a group of professionals and students listened to Andrew Rem, CFA and Paul Dwyer, CFA talk about their experience as Equity Analysts. Over the course of lunch, our speakers shared with us their backgrounds, what they do on a daily basis, important lessons they’ve learned, and even some tips on breaking into this extremely sought-after career.

Background

Our speakers: Andrew Rem, CFA and Portfolio Manager of Small Cap Value Fund at Nuveen Asset Management, and Paul Dwyer, CFA and Senior Research Analyst at Punch & Associates, did not start out life knowing they wanted to be Equity Analysts. Andrew spent some time in Retail management, while Paul did a stint in Investment Banking before finding their passion in Equity research and analysis. Both men have found they are value-oriented in their investment approach, and that they prefer small and (in Paul’s case) microcap companies when looking for investment opportunities. With Nuveen being part of TIAA, a multi-billion dollar financial services company, and Punch being a 15-person, employee-owned, RIA, with ~$1 billion under management, you could say Andrew and Paul work in opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to firm size and organizational structure. However, Andrew and Paul cautioned their young listeners not to be picky when trying to break into the industry. “Just get a job with a firm, large or small, and develop your craft first. Once you are in the ecosystem, then you can worry about firm size, investment style, and the like.”

Tasks of an Equity Analyst

It presents a unique challenge when summarizing a “typical day” in the life of an Equity Analyst, because no two days are the same. However, our speakers were able to broadly summarize an analyst’s duties in the following categories:

  • Research at the Office
    • Includes reading, financial modelling, making / talking to industry contacts, Peer / Competitor reviews, Management calls
  • Travelling
    • Includes Industry / Investment conferences, field trips to companies, and Investor days
  • Activities around Earnings Season
    • Includes listening to Quarterly/Annual calls, updating models / forecasts, reporting on company given updated information

While all this might sound fun, it is important to remember that being an Equity Analyst is not a “9-5” job, and with little oversight from supervisors, one must be a self-starter, highly motivated, and interested in the work to succeed. The best Equity Analysts have a process.

Investment Process

Our speakers stressed the importance of having a repeatable Investment Process. “Focus on creating and then improving your process,” Paul encouraged the audience. “A good process will yield good results over time, while no process is no better than gambling.”

The speakers went on to describe the typical process in researching investments will often have the following steps:

Source -> Research -> Pitch -> Decide -> Monitor -> Close

Andrew recommended having an independent view and being skeptical of the “consensus” when analyzing and forming an opinion on an investment. “It’s only by doing something different, and zigging when the market zags, that one can expect to outperform over the long term.”

Food for Thought

Not surprisingly, given the exciting, intellectually stimulating, and often financially rewarding nature of the work, it is very competitive to break into and analyst positions don’t open up very frequently. Our speakers shared some of their recommendations on breaking in. These included:

  • Study for and obtain your CFA Charter
  • Be active in the stock market. Manage your own portfolio of investments and have a reason for why you own what you own.
  • Get to know your local investment community. Be active in the CFA Society of MN and in your Investment Club on campus (if applicable)
  • Demonstrate an interest and a passion for investing. This is a tough business and only a genuine love for the trade will get you through the tough stretches.
  • Attach an Investment write-up to your resume and cover letter when you go to apply for an open role. Even if you are wrong about the investment, this will demonstrate you are thinking about your investment decisions and will help you stand out in an interview.
  • Follow professional investors, read books and articles on investing, ask to shadow professional investors, and be persistent! The journey is part of the fun!

A special thanks to Andrew, Paul, and all the members of the CFA Society of Minnesota that make events like this one possible. Now it’s time to get out there and invest! Cheers! Be sure to check out upcoming Day in the Life events on our events calendar.

Event Recap: “What’s next for Commodities”

· · Leave a comment

By Joseph G. Ogega, a student in Financial Mathematics at the University of Minnesota and CFA level I candidate.

On February 15 CFA Society Minnesota hosted a presentation by Robert P. Ryan, SVP of Commodity & Energy Strategy at BCA Research. Bob comes with more than 30 years of experience in options market and trading. Prior to joining BCA as an ME in 2014, he worked at New York Mercentile Exchange, as a Senior Economist and Director of Options Research, Commodity markets.

Bob discussed how some macroeconomic factors and policies in key global economies impact supply-demand dynamics in commodities’ market. According to him, OPEC producing countries led by Russia and Saudi Arabia will most certainly maintain their production levels for the remainder of the year. “The demand for crude oil and other refined products is expected to spring up or at least be steady in 2018 through 2019, as a result of significant growth rates registered in approx. 75% of countries monitored by the IMF,” he said.

Global supply of crude oil is expected to increase on average by 1.98mm b/d leading to 99.64mm b/d in 2018, hence U.S. shale-oil production rising by 1.15mm b/d leading global growth. Coincidentally, global demand is also expected to increase by 2mm b/d in 2019 from 100mm b/d in 2018.

“In 2019, global crude and liquids supply will average 102.22mm b/d (+2.58mm b/d), led again by surging U.S. shale-oil production (+1.39mm b/d). “ (view graph here, slide 4)

 

He also believes that the recent move by the Fed to raise interest rates will boost crude oil prices as a result of appreciation of the USD. (view graph here, slide 9) This effect will be felt more in the second half of 2018.

The rapid decline in Copper prices -between 2011 and 2017- is believed to be due to China registering slower growth over the same period. However, with a strengthened USD, Bob believes that the market will be able offset the supply shortfalls.

China, have since implemented monetary and environmental policy reforms aimed at encouraging importation of high-grade ores over low-grade ores. Though this has caused a depression on steel prices, China remains the biggest global consumer of iron ores. Australia and Brazil have also adopted similar domestic policies.

As a parting shot, Bob strongly believes that the Energy markets is going to boom in the foreseeable future (five to 10 years from now).

Ryan, R (2018). Commodity Revival At Risk [slides 4,9]. Retrieved from BCA Research.