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Category Archives: Hot Topic Commentary

A Letter from Our President

24th August, 2017 · Joshua M. Howard, CFA · Leave a comment
Joshua M. Howard, CFA

Society members –

This is my final letter to you as President of CFA Society Minnesota – my two-year term as President comes to an end this month. At our annual meeting last week, the membership voted in the new slate of board members and executive officers, including your new President, Mark Peiler, CFA. I will be assuming the role of Immediate Past President for the next two years, then my service on the board will end (though not my participation in the Society).

Before I depart, I would like to thank a few people. First, I want to thank all of the past Presidents of CFA Society Minnesota that I served with during my time on the board: Tony Carrideo, CFA, Leyla Kassem, CFA, Robert Buss, CFA and Kim Brustuen, CFA. Your vision and commitment laid the groundwork for the transformation of the Society that has occurred over the past eight years. When I joined the board in 2009, the Society’s activities were restricted to a monthly lunch, a golf outing and an annual economic dinner. Thanks to the leadership and energy of Tony, Leyla, Robert and Kim we now offer a wide range of activities that meet the needs of almost any member. These range from half-day Insight series programs, a major investor conference, periodic distinguished speaker events, a well-attended annual new charterholder dinner, and plenty of free happy hours and networking events.

Second, I want to thank all the board members and committee volunteers I have served with during my time on the board. Their hard work and ideas led to many new initiatives, including the very successful compensation survey, which has grown from a local survey to one that now includes the entire Midwest and a few states outside our region. The Membership Committee runs a mentoring program that over the past few years has connected dozens of younger financial professionals with experienced industry veterans. Seven years ago, our Education Committee launched our own intensive review courses for all three levels of the CFA exam, which have served hundreds of candidates since their launch.

Besides these new programs, our Strategic Planning Committee spent a good portion of the last five years rewriting our mission and vision, as well creating a new, 3-5 year strategic plan. We also updated our bylaws, aligning these with best practices in governance and our relationship with the CFA Institute. Anyone who has ever tried to write a mission statement or attempted to craft a strategic plan knows how much work goes into these endeavors, and I want to thank everyone on the Board who helped with these documents.

I also want to sincerely thank our staff – Mark Salter, Amanda Sullivan and Diane Senjem, along with former staff members Kris Kautzman and Maren Amdal – for all their hard work over the years. None of the programs and activities mentioned above could have happened without their efforts. They took every idea we threw at them and somehow turned them into reality, no matter how far-fetched or challenging they seemed.

Finally, I want to thank you, our members. Thank you for volunteering with the Society, for attending events, for paying your dues, for suggesting how we can improve and for occasionally reading these letters. Thank you for adhering to the highest standard of ethics, for your commitment to the industry and for mentoring the next generation of investment professionals. We have accomplished a lot in the past eight years with your input and help, and I look forward to attending events alongside you as a regular Society member in the future.

Josh Howard, CFA
President, CFA Society Minnesota

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary |

It’s Time to Talk

2nd August, 2017 · Fred Martin, CFA · Leave a comment
Fred Martin, CFA

Two things have defined my adulthood – marriage and managing investments. My first marriage of 33 years ended in divorce and I count it as the greatest failure of my life. Today, I believe my industry – financial services – teeters on the same edge of failure.

Everywhere I look I see signs that my industry’s relationship with our clients is headed for a breakup every bit as profound as a divorce. The vast majority of investment management relationships are not productive. Both advisors and clients can sense the dysfunction but just do not know how to make things better. Just as a failing marriage is a shared responsibility of spouses, the alarming state of the financial services industry is the responsibility of both advisors and clients.

I believe it’s time to talk.

It’s time to have a candid conversation about active financial leadership and what standards we should have in place…as advisors…as clients…as leaders of businesses and leaders of homes. It’s time to identify and talk about the core truths of investing and financial relationships. It’s time to make the financial services industry a source of trust and stability and a place where client problems are solved. It’s time to identify the fundamental truths and unlearn the bad habits that harm investing and lead to unproductive, frustrating relationships.

It’s time to learn what active financial leadership really means.

On October 5, 2017, we are joining together outside of Minneapolis, at the Ames Center, for the first ever Objective Measure Conference. This conference is the start of this movement that we so desperately need to have. It can mark the beginning of healing between advisor and client. It can signify the beginning of a new season for the industry, unlearning those bad habits and setting new and better expectations. It can be the beginning of a bright and hopeful future.

If you’re skeptical that one conference will be able to achieve these goals, you’re not alone. I don’t believe it either. What I do believe, though, is that one conference can be the seed that triggers a catalytic reaction far beyond the Ames Center on a day in October. And we will follow this conference with at least 10 more annual conferences.

It’s the start of a conversation. It’s the start of a movement.

The future is unknown. Yet there is much we can do today to prepare for the questions of tomorrow. So let’s start now with rebuilding trust in the financial services industry.

Please join me on October 5th. All CFA members are invited to attend at a reduced rate, simply enter “cfa17” into the username and password.

To find out more about Fred Martin or The Objective Measure Conference, click here.

Read the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Conversation with Fred Martin

 

Fred Martin, Founder, Lead Portfolio Manager, Disciplined Growth Investors

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Local Charterholders | Tags: CFA, Disciplined Growth Investors, financial leadership, Fred Martin, investments, Objective Measure, Objective Measure Conference |

Distinguished Speaker Series featuring Jason Trennert – Event Recap

27th June, 2017 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment

By Brad Lee, CFA Society Minnesota Intern

On Thursday, June 22, 2017 CFAMN hosted Jason Trennert, Managing Partner, Chairman and CEO at Strategas Research Partners. Mr. Trennert is the author of multiple books on investing, and is widely quoted in the press, and is a regular on CNBC and Bloomberg. He shared his perspective on a diverse group of topics including his viewpoint on current economic trends, investing in the Trump era, and the growing discrepancy in the beliefs between the average citizen versus experts in these subjects.

The Base Case

Mr. Trennert is forecasting real GDP growth of 2-2.5% in 2017 and ~3% in 2018. He believes deregulation will focus on energy and financials, and the budget will focus on increases in defense and infrastructure spending. Small business confidence is growing. Therefore, policy changes are believed to help small and mid-sized businesses more than large businesses.

Economic Outlook

His presentation featured a segment on the greatest story never told. This was the serendipity of the election results in November 2016, coinciding with a turn of positive  S&P 500 trailing 12-month Y/Y earnings growth in 4Q’16. This adjustment of increased earnings came after 6 months of negative earnings, which ultimately stimulated the current rally. Mr. Trennert concluded this is perhaps the most unloved bull market of all time since its inception in 2009. The era of low interest rates also may finally be ending. Currently he is bullish on the economy and the market in the foreseeable future.

Four 4 Main Items to Trump Agenda

There were four key points in Mr. Trennert’s presentation he believes investors should focus on, which are highlighted below:

  1. Increasing velocity of money
  2. More drilling
  3. Increased spending of infrastructure and defense
  4. Tax reform

The last seven years has been a period of easy money but tight regulation. An unforeseen issue with this has been marginal companies staying in business, especially in the retail and energy space. Mr. Trennert foresees looser restrictions on stress tests and increased velocity of money going forward with the new administration. As for the current priority of deregulation and the U.S. exporting more in energy, this will result in more drilling by companies and will benefit companies who are prepared for the shift. However, Mr. Trennert is actually more bearish with lighter controls in the industry. He also specified only three of the NATO members (U.S., the U.K., and Estonia) are spending the expected 2% of their GDP on defense spending. Thus, he is bullish on defense stocks and believes this is a growth industry even in an era of populism and heighted concerns about national security. As for tax reform, he believes there are four major goals for the Trump Administration. It includes tax simplification, flattening the effective corporate rate, shift to a territorial tax system, and encouragement of CapEx spending.

Revenge on the Nerds

Mr. Trennert stated his research in 2016 had been “…actually being in the research” or discussing with others to find their perspectives. Thus, he concluded there is a growing trend of how “average ordinary” people are starting to question experts on investments and the economy. Some of these include the open borders, the Affordable Care Act, low interest rates on savings, and over-diversification of investment accounts.

Conclusion

From an investment perspective, Mr. Trennert is overweight financials, industrials, and technology. He believes small to mid-cap financials have more to gain from deregulation than large caps, and likes technology stocks that as he simple stated, “…do not have triple pricing multiple earnings valuation…” He also believes it’s a good bet there will be a tax cut on repatriated profits and any future financial repression favors passive investing, although active investing will always play a major role in the investing world.

 

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary | Tags: Brad Lee, CFA Society Minnesota, Distinguished Speaker Series, Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners |

Judging the Research Challenge

10th April, 2017 · Tom Brakke, CFA · Leave a comment
Tom Brakke, CFA

The Americas finals for the CFA Research Challenge were held in Seattle last week.  Out of 53 teams that presented, two advanced to the world competition that will be held in Prague later this month.  The winners were Seton Hall University and Barna Business School.

Now in its eleventh year, the Research Challenge has grown to include more than a thousand schools and five thousand student participants.  At the local level, all teams perform an analysis on a company picked by the CFA society or group of societies that are sponsoring the competition.  They prepare a written report and give an oral presentation.  Each local event yields a winning team that goes on to the regional competition.  (Our local entrant, the University of Minnesota Duluth, lost to Seton Hall in the semifinal round.)

I had the opportunity to serve as a judge for one of the semifinals this year, my first exposure to the Research Challenge.  Separate graders rate the written reports (which count for fifty percent of the final score); I was one of three judges that evaluated the content and delivery of the presentations by five teams.

It is a demanding format, for the students and the judges.  The presentations are limited to ten minutes, followed by a period for questions and answers of the same length.  That is very little time for the students to convey – and the judges to digest – an incredible amount of information.

The judges were given the names of the subject companies in advance, so that we could do some research in preparation, but we had no knowledge of a team’s thesis or recommendation until the start of their presentation.  We had a little time after each presentation to make notes and then finalized our scores (in the categories of financial analysis, valuation, presentation, Q&A, participation among the members of the team, and slides) for compilation.

I also watched the final round of one of the brackets, so between the two parts of the competition, I saw ten presentations.  I was struck by the fact that much of the feedback that I would offer students preparing for the Research Challenge is the same that I give to professionals.

The most important factor is that ten minutes is very little time to tell an effective story.  Given the depth and breadth of the work that has been put into the analysis, the tendency is to try to cram as much information as possible into that amount of time.  I’d recommend a more minimalist approach, focusing on the key issues and just a few important charts, striving to impress upon the listeners the salient aspects of the analysis.

Along with that, slides should be clean and clear.  Too much information on a slide (that goes by quickly because there are too many slides) is difficult to comprehend.  It does give the impression that a lot of work has been done, but there are other ways to do that without sacrificing comprehension.  Simpler is better in most communications settings.  Even experienced professionals have trouble processing information when it is flying by at warp speed.

Like most professional analyst reports, the student evaluations come across as entirely too precise for the real world.  Fair value estimates and/or target prices are quoted to the penny – in the slides, in the presentations, and in the responses to questions.  Each of those is better presented as a fuzzy range than a single point of reference.  The figures to the right side of a decimal point are surely superfluous in the scheme of things.

Speaking of target prices, if they are used a time frame should be attached, as well as an indication of how much of that price change is attributable to the mere passage of time.  Unfortunately, that’s often not the case, so a current fair value range is preferable (at least to me) to a target price, but students are led astray in that regard by the wide use of target prices by professionals (often mostly for marketing purposes).

At the end of a presentation, students and professionals alike like to have a slide that says, “Questions” or “Q&A.”  I think that’s a mistake.  Everyone knows it’s that time.  Instead, it’s better to leave a key concept or chart on the screen for people to ponder upon, not a slide that adds no value.

However, in most cases during the competition that question slide didn’t linger too long.  The teams usually had one student running the computer, selecting exhibits to support their responses to the questions that were asked.  The teams that clicked back and forth looking for them burned up a lot of time, but several of the teams had intricate trees of slides at the ready to support their case (sometimes close to a hundred of them).

The effectiveness of that strategy was mixed, depending on the quality of the particular slide and its pertinence to the question at hand.  Many questions should be answered directly, without referencing a slide.  Doing so is more efficient and shows a command of the material that can impress the judges even more than showing an exhibit.  But sometimes the exhibits help.  Knowing when to use them and when not to use them is an important part of becoming an effective communicator.

As is knowing when to say, “I don’t know” or “we did not look at that specific issue.”  It is hard to do that, thinking that you are admitting weakness, but honesty builds trust.  Answering a question with a tangential thread that happened to have been rehearsed but is off point is likely more damaging to your cause than supportive of it.

In a team format, you have to trust your teammates to provide a good response and not be too eager to add on additional information unless it is very important.  In some cases, it seemed like everyone added their two cents, but only some of the additional comments were necessary or helpful.  Several detracted.

In addition, it’s good to remember that a short answer is best when that is what the question calls for.

In a competition, whether it’s during the Research Challenge or between asset management firms trying to win a piece of business, there is always a question of how much you should stand out from the crowd.  Doing things like everyone else – in your analysis or your communication – is lower risk and provides a level of check-the-box comfort, but it probably lessens your chance of winning.

The presentations by students tend to have many things in common with each other, so I would suggest that teams look for opportunities to be different, picking their spots to surprise the judges with something fresh, even in little ways.

I think every presentation that I saw included a Monte Carlo analysis for the stock price of the company under review.  The number of trials performed seemed to be mentioned every time (with some teams citing an extraordinary number of trials performed, as if that conveyed more power than it really does), but not one gave the kind of context that would have made the analysis mean something more significant.  For example, by citing the key variables and the ranges for them that were used (and why), a team could provide a window into their analytical process and differentiate themselves at the same time.

To reiterate, these quibbles and concerns are just as applicable to professionals, so the students shouldn’t feel like they were particularly deficient in those areas.  But future participants might benefit from stepping apart from the norms that tend to evolve in competitions like this, and take some chances aimed at communicating a story that doesn’t look like that of past winners or other teams that they face.

I appreciated the opportunity to witness a group of impressive young people demonstrate their abilities.  There is no doubt that the Research Challenge presented them with a unique opportunity to polish their skills.  I always say that, at a high level, all investment roles can be evaluated via a simple formula:  analysis plus communication.  This competition helps students to develop each of those capabilities, which will aid them in any investment career that they might have or any other vocation that they choose to pursue.

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Local Charterholders | Tags: analysis, CFA, CFA Institute, CFA Institute Research Challenge, Research Challenge, Tom Brakke |

Don’t Get Thrown for a Loss

19th December, 2016 · Craig Popp, CFA · Leave a comment
Craig Popp, CFA

CFA Society Minnesota encourages its members to contribute to Freezing Assets.  This is piece written by one of them to help individuals identify a trustworthy investment advisor.

On October 23, 2016, 60 Minutes aired a story titled “Thrown for a Loss” that detailed how dozens of NFL players lost over $40 million in an investment brought to them by their financial advisor. These individuals invested in a risky entertainment and gambling complex built in Alabama. Mistakes were made that caused the losses. One of the biggest was also the first—the individual these NFL players hired to advise them. Catastrophe may have been avoided had more time been taken to vet their financial advisor.

The financial advisor you choose to work with is among life’s important decisions. I believe the vast majority of us are trustworthy; however, bad apples do exist. Unfortunately, the process of selecting an advisor is intimidating. Therefore, people make their decision based upon uninformed criteria such as:

  • He/she goes to my church.
  • I see their ads on TV or hear them on the radio.
  • I’m related to him/her.
  • He/she drives a nice car (or has another other status symbol), so he/she must be good at what they do.

The fact is none of the above offer insight into the person’s integrity, competence, or qualifications. A good financial advisor will tell you the questions you should be asking. If not, here’s a list to get you started.

  • What is your wealth management process?
  • What is your investment management process (the two are different)?
  • How are you paid?/What are your fees?
  • Do you earn incentives from the products you recommend to me?
  • Do you have any business relationships with any outside financial firms?

The above questions can provide meaningful insight. The first two questions allow you to compare between multiple financial advisors. Their process should be disciplined, repeatable, and remove human emotion. The final three show transparency, or lack thereof. Watch how these questions are answered. The advisor should be comfortable describing fees. Every professional (doctor, lawyer, accountant) receives compensation for their services. Many investment products contain fees that aren’t prominent to the investor. If a financial advisor tells you there’s no cost, it’s a red flag.

The direct method of asking questions is effective. However, there are also indirect red flags to watch out for. Be aware for the person that sells past performance rather than a process. Also, many advisors offer seminars to the general public and/or to their clients. Unfortunately, the intent of these seminars is to sell you a product rather than provide education. That’s financial sales, not financial planning.

With the above in mind, it can still be a daunting task choosing among the 285,000 financial advisors in the United States (according to Reuters). To narrow that list, consider working with a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional or Chartered Financial Analyst. Members of these professional organizations sign an annual ethics pledge. It states they will act with integrity, independency and objectivity, and put your interests first. Individuals who attained either designation completed a rigorous education and examination process they don’t want to jeopardize.

Finally, utilize tools to help you in this process. One such is BrokerCheck. It’s from FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) and helps you research the professional backgrounds of brokers and brokerage firms, as well as investment advisor firms and advisors. Your attention should be placed on the disclosures section. Disclosures can be any customer complaints or arbitrations, regulatory actions, employment terminations, bankruptcy filings and any civil or criminal proceedings the individual was a part of.

Look how often the individual has switched firms. My personal opinion is that this is also a red flag. Reasons for departure are not given, so I would suggest asking. This industry heavily recruits, often paying the advisor to switch firms. Those who do that often are probably looking out for themselves rather than you.

The process of hiring a financial advisor should be completed with the same diligence as buying a home, car, or television. With the tools to perform the proper research and ask the right questions, you can find someone who puts you first.

 

Craig Popp, CFA is a Financial Advisor with Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC located at 115 Litchfield Ave SE, Willmar, MN. Craig Popp can be contacted at craig.popp@raymondjames.com. Any opinions are those of Craig Popp and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion areas of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. There is no strategy that ensures a profit or guarantees against a loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Local Charterholders | Tags: Certified Financial Planner, CFA, CFA Society Minnesota, CFAMN, CFP, Chartered Financial Analyst, financial advisor, FINRA |
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