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The Madding Crowds

30th August, 2021 · Susanna Gibbons, CFA · Leave a comment

By Susanna Gibbons, CFA
Managing Director, David S. Kidwell Funds Enterprise
Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota

Susanna Gibbons, CFA

One of the things we constantly remind students of as they evaluate different stocks is the need to understand what the market has priced in. It’s a ridiculous question, really. If a stock is trading at $20 a share, is it because everyone thinks it is worth $20? Or because half of the world thinks it is worth $15, and the other half $25? Or any of an infinite number of combinations? How would we even know? Equity markets in the United States are sufficiently large to balance a really wide range of views, and that is the whole point of market efficiency. This understanding has driven most investors into passive investing strategies, particularly where markets are deep and liquid. There is collective wisdom even in the madding crowds, and sophisticated investors choose not to defy it.

It is fascinating to see how quickly we abandon that discipline when it comes to thinking about the market for U.S. Treasury Bonds. Certainly, there is a great deal of market segmentation that might lead to inefficiencies, but no one really makes that argument. The discussions have, for decades, centered on “how low-interest rates are right now”. Why would anybody buy bonds when interest rates are so low?

In a recent piece published by Morgan Stanley, “A Borrower Not A Lender Be”, Andrew Sheets argues precisely that. Economists at Morgan Stanley believe that economic growth is accelerating, and this justifies borrowing at current levels, but certainly not lending. The growth opportunities cited all provide excellent support for the faster growth scenario – increased spending on combatting climate change, higher infrastructure spending, higher levels of capital investment across all sectors. But there is a flip side to each of these coins. These investments all entail significant economic transitions, and unless we consider the losses that might also result, we have no context for judging the growth.

If you believe that capital markets are efficient – and Treasury Markets in particular – then you have to consider the possibility that there are a range of negatives which the upside-only view is missing. What could detract from the economic growth driven by these opportunities?

A lot. Just a few examples:

  • The climate transition involves lots of new spending on wind and solar power, utility scale battery, and new delivery mechanisms. The faster this transition occurs, the more quickly our existing infrastructure is displaced. Stranded assets in the coal sector have already become a problem, and this will ripple through to other fossil fuels based largely on the cost of extraction. 
  • Corporate Office Parks, an innovation of the Disco era, remain largely deserted. Executives are starting to crow about how excited people are to “return to work!” (as though employees have not been working all along…) but many remain reluctant for reasons both personal and pandemic. Hybrid work looks like the direction we are headed, rendering much of our existing infrastructure obsolete – but investment in the future appears premature. We don’t really know what the hybrid model looks like, so we don’t know what type of real estate we should be investing in. Increased spending on 5G and other forms of connectivity are paired with stranded real estate investments.
  • Municipal infrastructure needs are changing. Given the increased number of drought-impacted areas, it seems likely that we will need to completely rethink our model for water and sewer management. There are a wide range of technological solutions more suited to drought prone areas, and existing systems may need to be substantially abandoned or re-tooled.
  • It seems likely that in 5-10 years, automobiles will have shifted to an all-electric fleet nationally. Think about the impact on gas stations around the country. All of this existing infrastructure will be obsolete, even as new investments in charging stations ramp up.
  • Demographics are shifting in complex ways. The baby boomers are retiring, and moving out of their income producing years into their savings-depleting years. They are dis-investing. At the same time, Millennials are delaying or rethinking child-bearing. Population growth is unlikely to support increased economic activity.

More than at any time in my career, growth opportunities are abundant but paired with equally abundant opportunities for losses. The range of potentially stranded assets is breathtaking, as we re-think fossil fuel dependence, work modality, and the very structure of our families and personal lives. Capex cycles are usually driven by replacement, expansion, and secular shift – and today, it looks like we are facing some massive secular shifts.

What are markets pricing in? To repeat, it is a ridiculous question, but it seems more ridiculous to assume markets are wrong, without considering all the possibilities being captured by current prices. I happen to think we will see extraordinary growth in some areas, balanced by stranded assets, outdated infrastructure, and climate-related property damage in others. On balance, the outlook for economic growth is both rosy and grim, and probably close to zero over the intermediate-term – which is precisely what markets are implying.

When thinking about whether or not to invest in bonds in the current market, the issue is not how low-interest rates are. The issue is entirely around what level of growth we can expect, in the aggregate, going forward. The decision to borrow or lend should be based on what level of growth we expect in the future. Unfortunately, our expectations are likely predicated on a world that no longer exists. Nominal GDP has trended lower since 1980. In the 1990s, we dreamt of the nominal growth world of 8% from the 1980s. As the new century dawned, we assumed that the 5.5% of the 1990s was the new normal. Then 4.3%. In the last decade, growth was 3.9%. We believe ourselves to be looking forward but have always assumed a return to a yesterday just out of reach. Why should we believe at this juncture that we will finally, finally, recapture the past?  

Collectively, we continue to believe in the efficiency of markets. Individually, though, we each have the hubris to believe in our own non-consensus forecasts, even as we are proven wrong time and again. Things do change. Maybe this time will be different. Yes. Maybe this time.

And so once again, Charlie Brown lines up to kick the football…

About Susanna Gibbons, CFA

Susanna has over 30 years of industry experience across multiple asset classes – equities, alternatives, and fixed income; and multiple roles – analytical, portfolio management, asset allocation, and educational. She serves on the Investment Advisory Council for the Minnesota State Board of Investments, the Editorial Board for the CFA Society of Minnesota, and as chair of the Investment Committee for the Girl Scouts River Valleys. She is currently exploring the integration of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles into decision making, is passionate about teaching sustainable investment practices, and is a fellow within the Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota. She earned an MBA in Finance from the NYU Stern School of Business and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary | Tags: Treasury Markets, US Treasury Bonds |

NDSU Presents: Navigating the Financial Markets

10th May, 2021 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment

Recap by David Camacho, CPA

Watch the Replay

I had the pleasure of attending North Dakota State University’s virtual Navigating the Financial Markets event. NDSU partnered with CFA Society Minnesota (CFAMN) in hosting three distinguished professionals in the asset management industry: Lisa Erickson, CFA (US Bank), Mark Simenstad, CFA (Thrivent), and Robert Thompson, CFA (Mairs & Power).

Lisa Erickson, CFA
U.S. Bank

The presentation kicked off with Lisa Erickson providing an overview of where she sees the economy today and some opinions on where we are going in the near future. In general, she recommends a glass-half-full portfolio orientation, where she is optimistic about the economy and markets but concerned about inflation. I certainly share her inflation concerns and so did the rest of the speakers, as it became one of the most prominent themes throughout the event.

Mark Simenstad, CFA
Thrivent Financial 

Mark Simenstad followed Lisa’s presentation by focusing on the dramatic reduction in economic stress that we are currently seeing in the US market. Factors such as resilient consumer demand and strong manufacturing production, additionally the booming housing market provides him with optimism for the market’s short-term performance. However, he also identifies inflation concerns on the horizon. I was interested in his view of the rapid economic recovery we experienced in response to the Coronavirus restrictions. Mark pointed out the “K” shaped economic recovery we are seeing – where certain sectors are taking off (tech, industries that facilitate working from home), while others are struggling (service, non-work from home industries). I certainly agree with him in identifying this as an area of concern and have also heard others refer to it as a “Y” shaped recovery – potentially accelerating industry trends that were already set in motion pre-pandemic.

Robert Thompson, CFA, CIC
Mairs & Power

Our final speaker was Robert Thompson. I was most interested in his comments regarding permanent asset growth resulting from the Fed’s actions post-COVID. In addition to touching on inflation, he mentioned my other great concern for the US economy – maintaining the dollar’s position as the world’s currency reserve. Certainly, we experience many benefits from this status and would face much steeper challenges were this to change.

The presentations by our three speakers concluded with a Q&A from the audience, with questions ranging from inflation to housing to monetary theory. I was quite impressed by all three speakers and want to express my sincere gratitude to Lisa, Mark, and Robert for sharing their experiences and knowledge with us all. Included below is a bullet point summary of some of their speaking points throughout the event. In general, we have a variety of reasons for optimism in our economy as we emerge from this long un-vaccinated stretch. However, some of the solutions the Fed implemented to cure our sudden recession have the potential to become ills in the future.

Lisa Erickson, CFA, US Bank:

  • Upfront conclusions
    • Recommend a glass-half-full portfolio orientation (optimistic on economy and markets)
      • Interest/Inflation a concern
    • Vaccination and Testing progress are key
    • Policy remains a key focus area
  • Despite early challenges, vaccination progress is accelerating
  • Financial Markets =/= economics
    • US moving towards expansion
  • Domestic earnings are projected to trend higher in 2021 and 2022
    • 21/20 YoY EPS Growth avg 28.3%

Mark Simenstad, CFA, Thrivent:

  • Dramatic Reduction in Economic Stress
    • Resilient Demand – Retail Sales (Gov Support)
    • Rebounding Employment – Claims Data
    • Resilient Manufacturing – Supply chains?
    • Housing – Boom times
  • Recovery Pulling Yields Higher
  • Bond Market and Inflation Expectations
    • Fed still buying 120B bonds / month
    • 10-year breakeven rate climbing, at 5 year high – market pricing in 2.5%
  • Earnings Need to Validate Market Surge
    • Forward 12M P/E Ratio vs Price – growing divide
  • Asset Class Universe – Returns and Yields
    • Treasuries taken a beating over 1 yr
  • Building Diversified Portfolios (MPT)
    • Optimal portfolios, efficient frontier
  • Market “Balance Sheet”
    • Vaccination effort in US asset, effort rest of world liability
    • Rapid economic recovery, k shaped economic recovery
    • Earnings/profit margins, supply chain issues
    • Unprecedented Fed Support, rising interest rate/inflation
    • Market breadth, historically very high valuation
    • Surging Fund Flows, Significant signs of speculation (BTC, SPAC, Coinbase)
    • Massive Fiscal Plans (Infrastructure), Potential Tax Hikes

Robert Thompson, CFA, CIC, Mairs & Power

  • The Fed and Federal Debt
    • Permanent Asset Growth
    • US Debt 21.7 T, 4.8T held by the Fed
    • Since 2/26/20, federal debt increased by 4.3T, 55% of that inc. Fed financed
  • Outlook
    • Economic Growth Post Pandemic
      • Fed Reserve (must maintain our currency reserve status)
      • Stimulus, Real Estate Outlook, Geopolitics, Global Debt Levels (unsustainable?), Crypto and SPACS (worried about SPACS being a bubble)
    • Market Outlook
      • Inflation (biggest concern), Interest Rates (chasing riskier assets seeking higher yields), Corporate Bond Spreads (should do well in current environment), Equity Market

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary |

CFA Society Minnesota Members Spotlight #4

22nd February, 2021 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment

Samir “Sam” Murty, CFA
Principal, Senior Relationship Manager
Orgel Wealth Management LLC, with offices in Altoona, WI and Minnetonka, MN

Samir “Sam” Murty, CFA
Samir “Sam” Murty, CFA

Samir “Sam” Murty’s lifelong passion for music shines through whenever he performs in the Eau Claire Male Chorus or attends plays, symphony performances, operas or rock concerts in the city he calls home.  But it’s Murty’s pairing of that love of the arts with his expertise in fundraising and wealth management that is transforming Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

Since 2013, Murty has served as one of the lead fundraisers for the community’s 1,200-seat performing arts center that provides rehearsal, teaching and performance space for both the community and music and theater students at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire. The concert hall opened its doors in the fall of 2018, and Murty continues serving on its board and will soon begin his term as president.

“I was one of the first people to donate — sight unseen,” Murty said. “I just believed in the performing arts center’s transformative powers and what it could be for this community.”

Murty grew up in western Wisconsin, raised by a mother who was a physician and a father who worked as a chemical engineer for Pillsbury and General Mills. After graduating from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1999, Murty took a job as a consulting associate with Jeffrey Slocum and Associates, which encouraged him to seek and earn the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) designation.

In 2004, Murty met Mark Orgel through his work with the Bethel University Foundation investment committee. Orgel was looking for a junior consultant to join the Mark Orgel Investment Group, which then was a brokerage practice under RBC Dain Rauscher with about $1.1 billion in assets under management. Murty shared Orgel’s vision of serving clients with integrity and excellence and ultimately joined Orgel’s practice.

Orgel, Murty, and several other partners went on to form Orgel Wealth Management in 2013 as a Registered Investment Advisor serving primarily high net worth and ultra-high net worth individuals, business owners, retirement plans, and non-profit organizations. Orgel Wealth Management has since grown to employ 61 people managing some $5.6 billion in assets as of December 31, 2020, and recently expanded by adding an office in Minnetonka, Minnesota. But Murty is most proud of the firm’s long-term relationships with so many clients.

“We don’t measure our success by our asset base,” he said. “We measure our success by the number of people we help and by the lives that we have changed.”

Murty serves as a principal and senior relationship manager at the firm while leading its foundation and endowment practice. He remains passionate about his community and getting involved, and he often works with non-profit organizations to teach them about fundraising.

Orgel Wealth Management, which recently opened a Minnetonka office to help it meet client demand, is patient when growing its workforce to ensure it hires the right people who embrace the firm’s client centric focus, Murty says. Its partners seek out people who inherently want to do the right thing, go the extra mile, ask those extra questions, and take the more difficult path if that’s the one that needs to be taken. Its relationship managers don’t allow calls to go to voice mail during business hours, and when a call or email needs to be returned, it’s returned that same day. Senior managers make sure they’re available for their clients on nights and weekends for urgent needs.

“If you lead with the right intentions and with excellent service, good things are going to happen,” he says.

The firm has also worked to expand its team and deepen its service offerings. Currently, clients have access to estate planning specialists who can help them understand the estate planning process and partner with clients’ attorneys to develop estate plans and tax mitigation strategies. In addition, the firm has added tax professionals who can assist with forward tax planning, identify tax-efficient ways to structure business deals, and analyze and develop complex tax-management strategies in concert with clients’ outside tax counsel. All of these services and professionals, with specialists located in both the Altoona and Minnetonka offices, are available to clients at no charge beyond the firm’s advisory fee.

“Our firm strives to provide truly comprehensive service,” he said. “In addition to our tenured investment professionals, we have legal experts, tax experts, and financial planners. Our goal is to be the first place that our clients call for any manner of question — financial sure, but also for anything in their lives. We consider ourselves problem solvers first.”

Orgel Wealth Management is 100-percent employee owned with no private equity investment, and the firm’s goal is to remain independent. Its growth is primarily through word-of-mouth referrals from clients, with zero dollars budgeted for advertising.

“We’ve had many, many opportunities to sell, but we want to remain independent,” Murty said, “because we think it’s that independent, entrepreneurial spirit that allows us to make the investments to continue to put our clients first, which in turn encourages their willingness to tell a friend.”

Orgel Wealth Management has seven CFA Charterholders, including Murty, and additional employees working toward the CFA designation. Murty feels it’s important to support those efforts much like Jeffrey Slocum and Associates did in the early days of his career.

“I really do feel that it is our duty as members to continue to promote the designation as the highest standard and highest designation in the industry,” he said.

Samir Murty, CFA, holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics and history from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, graduating with Honors.

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Member Spotlight | Tags: #memberspotlight |

CFA Society Minnesota Members Spotlight #3

25th January, 2021 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment
Deb Weiss, CFA
Deb Weiss, CFA

Deb Weiss, CFA
Okabena Advisors, Managing Director

It’s no surprise that Deb Weiss, CFA, so skillfully helps her clients navigate the world of monitoring and tailoring investment plans. After all, she sits in the navigator’s seat of a single-engine plane built from scratch by her husband with some assistance from her.

Deb, the managing director of Okabena Advisors in Minneapolis, learned to rivet as the couple spent five years building a Van’s RV-7 two-seater and another three years constructing an RV-9.

“It came as a ‘kit,’ which means the entire outside skin of the plane only, absent wiring, instrumentation, propeller and engine,” Deb says. “All of that was custom designed or purchased separately. There is a whole community of lovely people around the world who’ve built planes and share this interest.”

Deb & her husband

Deb loves her husband’s hobby and where it (and he) can take her, but she gets just as excited by the opportunities to support the missions of her tax-exempt clients and the generosity of her taxable clients who strive to make the world a better place. Her role has her serving as her clients’ primary investment contact, communicating Okabena Investment Services’ strategy while helping them create investment policies and allocations that will meet their risk appetites and return expectations. She loves the total portfolio management aspects, risk management and asset allocation functions of her work and enjoys the variety of people and strategies across different asset classes. She’s also always on the lookout for other, like-minded potential clients whose interests are aligned.

Deb began her career in the controllers organization of the automotive industry before transitioning to corporate treasury, issuing bonds and commercial paper. She expanded into corporate venture investing before taking on responsibilities for manager research across all the broad asset classes, evaluating and selecting investments and managers for corporate pension plans and other employee benefit plans.

Deb took and passed the first two levels of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) exam in the mid 1990s before assuming corporate treasurer roles that left her little time for further study. When she decided to pursue completion of her certification, she called and learned that the seven-year limit between exam levels had been lifted. She passed Level III on her second try and is thankful she was persistent and focused to achieve the designation.

“You have to be an optimist to stay in this industry,” she says, “believing that over the long run, markets grow and diversified portfolios can produce positive returns.” The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has provided both some challenges and benefits. Working from home has eliminated her commuting time, and Deb loves interacting with her clients. “I miss seeing my colleagues and clients in person, but generally people are more available and flexible about meeting,” Deb says. “And technology has made the transition considerably easier.”

In her words:

What do you want people who work with you professionally to know about you?

I hold myself to very high standards and hope always to meet and exceed clients’ and colleagues’ expectations.

How do you engage with your community?

I volunteer my time on several not-for-profit community-based boards and investment committees.

How do you spend your free time?

These days, I love hanging out with my “pod”, enjoying my family, my home, my neighborhood and the beauty of the Mississippi River and nature generally in Minnesota. When it’s too cold or dark to go out, I knit. I can’t wait to be able to take to the skies again with a destination and far-flung family and friends in mind.

Any predictions for the year ahead?

Who would have thought 2020 would look as it did? I’m not about to attempt to predict 2021. I’ll predict rates and dates, but not both!

—

Deb holds a B.A. in multidisciplinary social sciences from Michigan State University (Summa cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa) and an MBA from the Owen School at Vanderbilt University. She and her husband have two adult sons (both happily married and gainfully employed) and two amazing grandchildren (so far).

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary, Member Spotlight | Tags: #memberspotlight |

Video Gaming & eSports: Taking Media and Entertainment to the Next Level

11th January, 2021 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment

By David Camacho, CPA

John Patrick Lee, CFA
ETF Product Manager
VanEck

On December 10, 2020, John Patrick Lee, an ETF Product Manager with VanEck, provided the CFA Society of Minnesota with an overview of where the video game industry stands as we closed out 2020. COVID-19 provided significant tailwinds for the gaming industry, which now projects to reach $159B in 2020, making it a bigger industry than both cyber-security and robotics. Strong growth trends were already in place but stay-at-home orders (both domestically and abroad) and further cord-cutting accelerated the trends.

Mobile gaming now represents the largest and fastest-growing platform by revenues, overtaking console and pc-gaming. Since 2015, mobile revenue has grown at an annualized rate of 22%, outpacing total gaming’s growth of 15%. We are also witnessing a story develop in the emerging markets space, with many consumers gaining access to mobile technology for the first time. These trends may have further room to run, with mobile tech priced at a cheaper entry point relative to gaming counsels or some PCs. Additionally, many consumers may already have or otherwise need mobile tech, providing the base for new gaming consumers.

Publishers have taken note of the mobile boom and adjusted their business models to take advantage of this trend. Throughout 2020, we have seen “games as a service” take off and accelerate revenues. Previously, games were viewed as a product. With viewing games as a service, revenues have steadily increased with the employment of subscription revenue models and microtransactions. In Take-Two’s Q1 2021 fiscal earnings report, recurrent consumer spending grew by 52% and now accounts for 58% of net revenue.

ESports has seen significant growth from the same trends as gaming but is still much smaller compared to the gaming industry. As social streaming websites are experiencing wide-spread adoption and rapid growth (i.e. Twitch), publishers are capturing additional revenue streams. Publishers own the rights to the games played competitively, as well as the broadcasting rights, which are sold to media and communication services companies. The largest share of this revenue is coming from media rights (23%) and sponsorships (42%).

A few of the highlights of the presentation below:

Gaming surge: an acceleration of existing trends – eSports audience has grown tremendously, supported by long-term demographics and industry trends (such as cord-cutting)

  • Social streaming websites are experiencing widespread adoption and rapid growth (i.e. Twitch)
  • Netflix views Fortnite as a bigger competitor than HBO Max
  • The average gamer is in his/her 30s with disposable income

Mobile Gaming: Growth Powerhouse

  • Since 2015, mobile revenue has grown at an annualized rate of 22%, outpacing gaming’s total growth of 15%
  • Huge story in the emerging market space (gaining access to mobile technology for the first time)
  • Mobile tech/entry cheaper than gaming console or some PCs, many consumers might already have or need mobile

In-Game spending: Revolutionizing the Revenue Model

  • New: Gaming as a service (subscription revenue model, in-game purchases/microtransactions pushing total revenues higher)
  • Old: Gaming as a product
  • In Take-Two’s Q1 2021 fiscal earnings report, recurrent consumer spending grew by 52% and accounts for 58% of net revenue

As league owners, publishers control the eSports ecosystem

  • Much smaller than the videogame industry
  • Publishers own the rights to the games played competitively, as well as the broadcasting rights, which are sold to media and communication services companies
  • Biggest revenue in this sector coming from media rights (23%) and sponsorships (42%)

Gaming Industry Risks

  • Single-game risk, company too dependent upon a single game or franchise
  • Return to normalcy risk (highlighted as highest risk) – as COVID-19 fades, consumer behavior shifts

MVIS Global Video Gaming and eSports Index

  • Companies must derive at least 50% of total revenues from video gaming and/or eSports to be initially eligible for index (targeted, pure-play exposure)
  • Included: Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, Tencent, NVIDIA, AMD
  • Excluded: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Sony, and Intel
  • Relatively low correlation among other indexes/sectors

Resources

  • Presentation Slides from December 10, 2020
  • Get in the Game – Whitepaper by JP Lee, CFA & Nicolas Fonseca, CFA

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Posted in Hot Topic Commentary | Tags: Videogames |
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