TwitterFacebookLinkedInEmailRSS
logo

An editorial blog of CFA Society Minnesota

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
    • Compensation Survey Contact Form
  • Subscribe to Blog via Email

Tag Archives: commodities

Event Recap: “What’s next for Commodities”

26th March, 2018 · CFAMNEB · Leave a comment

By Joseph G. Ogega, a student in Financial Mathematics at the University of Minnesota and CFA level I candidate.

On February 15 CFA Society Minnesota hosted a presentation by Robert P. Ryan, SVP of Commodity & Energy Strategy at BCA Research. Bob comes with more than 30 years of experience in options market and trading. Prior to joining BCA as an ME in 2014, he worked at New York Mercentile Exchange, as a Senior Economist and Director of Options Research, Commodity markets.

Bob discussed how some macroeconomic factors and policies in key global economies impact supply-demand dynamics in commodities’ market. According to him, OPEC producing countries led by Russia and Saudi Arabia will most certainly maintain their production levels for the remainder of the year. “The demand for crude oil and other refined products is expected to spring up or at least be steady in 2018 through 2019, as a result of significant growth rates registered in approx. 75% of countries monitored by the IMF,” he said.

Global supply of crude oil is expected to increase on average by 1.98mm b/d leading to 99.64mm b/d in 2018, hence U.S. shale-oil production rising by 1.15mm b/d leading global growth. Coincidentally, global demand is also expected to increase by 2mm b/d in 2019 from 100mm b/d in 2018.

“In 2019, global crude and liquids supply will average 102.22mm b/d (+2.58mm b/d), led again by surging U.S. shale-oil production (+1.39mm b/d). “ (view graph here, slide 4)

 

He also believes that the recent move by the Fed to raise interest rates will boost crude oil prices as a result of appreciation of the USD. (view graph here, slide 9) This effect will be felt more in the second half of 2018.

The rapid decline in Copper prices -between 2011 and 2017- is believed to be due to China registering slower growth over the same period. However, with a strengthened USD, Bob believes that the market will be able offset the supply shortfalls.

China, have since implemented monetary and environmental policy reforms aimed at encouraging importation of high-grade ores over low-grade ores. Though this has caused a depression on steel prices, China remains the biggest global consumer of iron ores. Australia and Brazil have also adopted similar domestic policies.

As a parting shot, Bob strongly believes that the Energy markets is going to boom in the foreseeable future (five to 10 years from now).

Ryan, R (2018). Commodity Revival At Risk [slides 4,9]. Retrieved from BCA Research.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
Posted in Hot Topic Commentary | Tags: BCA Research, Bob Ryan, CFA Charterholder, CFA Society Minnesota, CFAMN, China, commodities, crude oil, energy, interest rates, OPEC, Robert Ryan |

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Recent Posts

  • Important Minnesota Financial Literacy Legislation Update 03/20/2023
  • New Financial Literacy Effort Launched for Minnesota Communities and Schools 09/30/2022
  • End of an Era 07/26/2022
  • Starting my Midwestern Goodbye 04/05/2022
  • Face-Off 10/18/2021

Submit your inquiry here

Categories

  • Compliance (3)
  • Department of Labor Fiduciary Rule (1)
  • Ethics (7)
    • Ask the Ethicist (2)
  • Freezing Assets Shout Out (34)
  • Hot Topic Commentary (177)
  • Intellisight (1)
  • Local Charterholders (88)
  • Member Spotlight (4)
  • Society President Letters (15)
  • Spotlight on MN Companies (1)
  • Valuation (2)
  • Weekly Credit Wrap (35)

Archives

  • March 2023 (1)
  • September 2022 (1)
  • July 2022 (1)
  • April 2022 (1)
  • October 2021 (1)
  • August 2021 (1)
  • May 2021 (1)
  • February 2021 (1)
  • January 2021 (2)
  • October 2020 (2)
  • September 2020 (2)
  • August 2020 (1)
  • June 2020 (1)
  • February 2020 (1)
  • December 2019 (1)
  • November 2019 (2)
  • October 2019 (1)
  • September 2019 (1)
  • August 2019 (1)
  • July 2019 (2)
  • June 2019 (1)
  • April 2019 (3)
  • March 2019 (2)
  • February 2019 (1)
  • January 2019 (2)
  • December 2018 (1)
  • November 2018 (2)
  • October 2018 (3)
  • September 2018 (1)
  • April 2018 (3)
  • March 2018 (8)
  • February 2018 (3)
  • January 2018 (1)
  • November 2017 (5)
  • September 2017 (1)
  • August 2017 (3)
  • July 2017 (1)
  • June 2017 (1)
  • May 2017 (1)
  • April 2017 (2)
  • March 2017 (1)
  • December 2016 (2)
  • November 2016 (2)
  • October 2016 (1)
  • September 2016 (1)
  • August 2016 (1)
  • July 2016 (2)
  • June 2016 (5)
  • May 2016 (2)
  • April 2016 (2)
  • February 2016 (5)
  • January 2016 (3)
  • December 2015 (1)
  • November 2015 (4)
  • October 2015 (6)
  • September 2015 (1)
  • July 2015 (1)
  • June 2015 (6)
  • April 2015 (2)
  • March 2015 (4)
  • February 2015 (2)
  • December 2014 (2)
  • November 2014 (7)
  • October 2014 (10)
  • September 2014 (3)
  • August 2014 (5)
  • July 2014 (2)
  • June 2014 (5)
  • May 2014 (9)
  • April 2014 (9)
  • March 2014 (8)
  • February 2014 (7)
  • January 2014 (8)
  • December 2013 (6)
  • November 2013 (7)
  • October 2013 (13)
  • September 2013 (4)
  • August 2013 (2)

Popular Tags

#memberspotlight 2015 Compensation Survey A Day in the Life BlackRock Board of Directors Carlson School of Management CFA CFA Charter CFA Charterholder CFA Charterholders CFA Institute CFA Institute Research Challenge CFA Minnesota CFAMN CFA Program CFA Society Minnesota CFA Society MN Changing Perceptions Chartered Financial Analyst charterholders Compensation Survey Diversity ESG ethics freezing assets shout out interest rates investment management Josh Howard Joshua M. Howard Member Engagement Minnesota non-GAAP earnings North Dakota Nuveen Asset Management President's Letter SEC Society President South Dakota Susanna Gibbons University of Minnesota Volunteer Volunteering Volunteers Weekly Credit Wrap women in finance
© 2021 CFAMN Freezing Assets - Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFAMN, FreezingAssets.org or CFA Institute.
  • Home
  • Log In
  • RSS Feed